Memorable Quote to LIVE by:

"If you're going to be crazy, you have to get paid for it, or else you're going to be locked up." Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

Saturday, May 8, 2021

Home Prices and Wow!

Greetings Me Droogs n Droogettes!
So, Ye Olde Intrepid Reporter here, up early on a Saturday Morn... Wifey has a gig and had to be up early for a couple of folks who need haircuts.  So, unfortunately for me, I end up getting up with her on the day I'd much rather sleep in.  Meh.  Not like I'm not doing anything today.  Spawn and I are doing brunch, so that oughta be fun.

So, yesterday I was 'at work' i.e. doing the "I pretend to work, they pretend to pay me" thing from home.  I do have to say that since I got put on outbound calls, meaning I'm calling providers to schedule medical appointments for people, I have scads of 'free time' whereas when I was on inbound, I had to stand by and suffer the whims of 'how many assholes are going to call in a row?' sort of thing.  Those of you who've done call center work feel me on that.  Doing outbound, I know that management expects 5 minute call per failed appointment, and about a 8-10 minute call for a successful appointment.  

Me? 1 minute-2 minute for a fail, 3.5-4 minutes for setting one up.

So, as long as I stay slightly ahead of the curve, I can get meselves 20-30 minutes worth of typing time with y'all at any given moment.  I lern't trick that back in the Army... I was new, and given an assignment to sweep, mop and buffer the HQ.  Me being me, and clueless at the time, went down and knocked it out.  I went back after about 2 hours and told the Corporal I was done... he was like "No dumbass... it takes 6 to 7 hours to do it right.  You dig me?  Go 'do it again' and don't let me see you for at least another 4-5 hours, then I'll follow up and see that it's done."
<Lightbulb Moment> "Ahhhh Gotcha Corporal!"

Front to Rear, Disappear.

We spent the next 5 hours playing I think Nintendo 64, and then he inspected the A.O.
I learned a lot from that man.
Really funny, that Corporal went on to being a famous Green Beret Legend...  won't say his name but he retired a Major? Light Colonel? and is well known in Spec-Ops, and has been on TV doing a LOT of 'famous people' freefall jumping.  I went from being his most worthless private who he thought would never last to being a well known and respected Contractor, who because of his lessons, probably kept me alive quite a few times...
Anywho.
So, work yesterday I get a -ping- of a text message on my cell phone.  Checked it out and it was from Opendoor
Now, back at the beginning of Ye Olde Divorce, I was into the idea of ditching the house outright.  That was before I 'won' the divorce mind you.  I was looking for a quick cash-out and bail.  I checked the 'keep me updated' box as I wanted to see how the market has progressed, and I mean what the hell?  Why not.  When Xwife bought this place, we literally, by my line-of-thinking, we got royally screwed.  And that was before I knew that the market was waaay overinflated.  She bought in May of 2005, the very height of overpriced McMansions in Florida.

$249,000...

Let me tell ya, I fought for this motherfucker over the years.
Beat Two Foreclosures, mostly thanks to MomUnit and FedBro
Kept it up and running despite like no liquidity Begged, borrowed, stole.
Whatever it took.
The worst was in 2007-9 when the market completely collapsed.
I was underwater by 100K.  I mean it was a realistic housing correction to the actual real value of the house... this's a nice place.  $145K is reasonable in a sane market and sane world.
But it ain't.
Not anymore.
I apparently back in March signed up for text alerts.  So back on March 25th, I got the following:

"Hey Big Country, based on recent trends, 
Your new preliminary offer for XXaddressXX
has been updated to $300,500.00
Please click here to view the details"

Ok... so that wasn't completely unexpected.  Zillow at the time was saying it was worth about $240K, and that's based on taxes, other sales and whatever.  Still, a sight more than I expected.  Now, cut to about a week later, April 3rd:

"Hey Big Country, based on recent trends, 
Your new preliminary offer for XXaddressXX
has been updated to $300,800.00
Please click here to view the details"

Huh... a $300 gain in 8 days... that was telling, but not unexpected as I had told y'all, Serbian War Criminal's crib went on the market and blew like an overcharged light-bulb.  I mean damn.  So... I told Wifey and joked about "If it hits $325 to $350, we're selling and bailing."  I'd be looking at a $200K profit after everything is done...  So, I get pinged yesterday, and I get:

"Hey Big Country, based on recent trends, 
Your new preliminary offer for XXaddressXX
has been updated to $310,000.00
Please click here to view the details"

Holy. Shit.

I did the math.  That's an average daily gain in value of $262.00 a day.

And that's "Fuck y'all, cut me a check" and walk away money.  No fixing it up, no showing, no hassle, all closing costs and whatnot handled.  Sign on the dotted line, name the move-out date, don't let the place burn to the ground, pack yo shit and fuck yo couch, collect the check and Hasta la Vista baby.  Which, in itself is telling.  It probably means I could market it traditionally, go through the rigmarole, and make even MOR.

But, as Wifey has said "Where're we going to go?"
Until her 'Rents are gone, we have to stay in the A.O., and I'm not going to do the Apartment dweller thing... no how, no way.  In fact, I've decided to sit pretty so to speak.  I know the A.O., All my plans are in place defensively, I know 80% of the neighbors, and if shit goes sideways, we should be good.  I mean I got range cards for the whole A.O. based on a to-be-built snipers nest on the roof.  Dead space marked and everything.  And mainly, these prices and daily gains?

Oh man, tell me we aren't in trouble.  Go ahead, Lie to me.  
The economy is about to shit.  No fucking question.  
Perma-shit.
The Big One
No doubt now.
When a moron and maroon like me can see the economic downturn that's ahead, and understanding that shit is about to 'get real', the last thing I want to do is be oot and aboot with a pile of soon-to-be Worthless Weimar Bux.  

I mean hells bells, some court just overturned the CDC ruling of "Can't throw the bums out for not paying rent", which means there's about to be a couple of major crises busting out.
1)  The courts, already overtaxed/overworked, are about to be flooded with Landlords demanding A) back rent and B) get the fuck out now.
2)  The people who've been taking advantage of the situation are going to be homeless.  Period dot.  Now, lots of them are legitimately financially burdened... BUT, as far as I'm concerned, there literally ain't no reason that you should be unemployed right now.  My job is a remote work-from-home call center gig, and most of my co-workers are all newbies to the game.  First gig people, still in school, or at least -were- til Rona.  90% of the 'unemployed' have stayed that way, as it was more profitable to NOT work, hence why
3)  The states are starting to cut off the 'extra unemployment subsidy'.  No more making more to stay home than to be a honest hardworking contributing citizen.  No more free bux from Uncle Sugar and go back to work you parasites.

So, look for FedGov to step in and start Stimulus #4 shortly.  Seeings that they're intending on just continually printing, we're about less than a year from full on Weimar and allll the fun and games that goes with it.
Gas is already up like .80 cents locally... not too bad, but considering the stories from other areas we've gotten off light.  Especially in the west.  Add on the complete lack of lumber, and the climbing prices... hoo boy... shades of the Chinese drywall days... I was really lucky in that debacle... No poison drywall in this place... the neighborhood over from me?  Toxic Avenger level shit.

Climbing food prices, along with a general slowdown in just about everything, debts now being called in all over, people about to be manhandled into the streets?  Packs of AntiFa re-re's running around without consequence?  Cops either not caring, not doing, and or not bothering?  
Add on, from MY perspective that it's supposed to be a killer hot summer?  Poore Richard's Almanac is a pretty good gauge as to what to expect weather wise. It in part said: "Summer will be hotter than normal, with the hottest periods in late July and mid-August. Rainfall will be below normal in the east and above normal in the west. September and October will be warmer than normal, with below-normal precipitation."  Here we ain't had no rain comparatively to what we -should- have... "Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun."

Gonna be a lot of the first this summer methinks Aye?

So, hunker down.
Keep stockpiling.  CostCo awaits today
Head on a swivel
More Later I Remain The Intrepid Reporter
Big Country

15 comments:

  1. Funny the ups and downs of the housing market.

    I bought a house back in 2000. Paid fair market for it. Good place in between Baltimore and DC. A month after moving in I lost my job. I should have bailed then.

    Anyhow, I stuck with it. Then the housing market went cray-cray. I was sitting there and had one of those 'offers' in hand. $100K more than I paid for the place.

    I asked myself the same question as your Wifey. "But where would I live?" The answer was no bueno. So I stayed.

    Hung on for another 4 years into the crash of 2008-2010. The business I was in was auto related and I could not work hard enough to keep afloat. Finally walked away in 2010.

    6 years later the bank finally foreclosed and sold the place. As the house sat empty for all that time it naturally deteriorated and further lowered it's value.

    In the end I had put over $400K of my money in the down payment and 10 years of monthly payments into the place. After all the dust settled the bank said I owed them $450K in losses and interest which they eventually wrote off. Thank the Gods they never files a 1099 on the losses so I never had to pay tax on their write-off.

    B, You're a smarter than average dude. Just be careful. Shit can flip in a very short time span. My inner brainz are telling me I've seen this coming shit show before.

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  2. My place has doubled in value since 18...Last time I looked it was in the 1.8 range which is just plain damn crazy...

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  3. Lots of signs pointing toward a bad time in the summer for all of us and a really bad time for those who are in proximity to diverse neighborhoods/antifa run zones.

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  4. So in addition to the lumber shortage, there is now a shortage of chicken wings, and assorted other fowl parts. Local watering hole has posted this on the 'book. "If none of you know we are experiencing something we have never experienced before... a severe poultry shortage... especially wings. In the past 2 weeks our cost of wing prices almost doubled! We pride ourselves on quality... fresh, never frozen, jumbo wings! We have not raised our wing prices in years and we unfortunately had to recently raise our prices drastically just to cover the cost of the products.
    Not only the price, but our supply is also an issue. We currently could not get wings from any of our providers this week, so due to this, we may not have any wings available.
    We deeply apologize for any of this inconvenience, but we know its a true crisis because we even heard a Chick-fil-a ran out of chicken!" And then used cars. Guy I know was looking to trade his vehicle. In the space of about 2 weeks or so, the trade in value went up around 500 dollars, even with a few hundred more miles, and the dealer has it for sale now at a higher price than it sold for brand new 3 yrs. ago.

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    Replies
    1. We had a couple of gift cards so the wife and I went to buffalo wild wings last night and ordered 15 wings each, a platter of tater tots with cheese and two cokes. It was over $50 before the tip. For a handful of wings, pop and tater tots. We have been going to BW3 since their first two restaurants in Columbus, OH but for that kind of money we could get steaks.

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    2. snuffy, the dealer i bought my truck from 3 years ago called to offer a buyback. this week he called back and offered 3450.00 more than i paid. that's never happened in 50 plus years at least. i'm tempted, but i need my truck.

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  5. Weather conditions in my AOA of Florida since last Summer, ie Fall, Winter and Spring, are very similar to the conditions that led to the 1998 Florida Firestorm. Look it up. Some places in the Ocala National Forest took years for even palmettos to snap back, and those things are even hardier than yard weeds.

    And your lovely Wife is right. Unless you go full Cracker, ie a sugar sand trap in a flood zone with a single wide on it, just like in 2005, though you can make beaucoup bucks selling, what are you going to buy?

    As to the sniper hide, see if your HOA and backyard will allow you to build a telephone pole fort for the Grandbebe. You know, one at just the right height to serve as a lookout post for an adult and maybe a sniper position? Literally hiding in plain site type of shit. Most or all the lumber except the poles can be finagled from construction sites, if you talk nice to the supervisor and he lets you meander through the cast-off pile. Telephone poles are often available from the local utility, but you may have to pay to have them delivered.

    Other than that, yeah, things are going to go sideways, have already. More and more states are going Constitutional Carry, Open Carry, Fuck the Feds Carry (except for the feckless assholes in Florida's congress, who have consistently cut out open or constitutional carry, the rat bastards (usually 'repubs' from the Miami area, go figure.)) More and more states are, on their own, declaring a border and illegal alien crisis. More and more states are enacting election cleanup laws. Thus setting, more and more, Civ War 2.0 up as the current Fed Gov will do its damnedest best to strike down the states powers some time this summer (the traditional time to start off a military campaign, after the planting is done and before the harvest...)

    Stay cool, hope your AC is working and/or gets fixed cheaply but well this time.

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  6. Yeppers, bro: real estate market is off the charts, and totally, the economy is gon' tank. The "smart money" has been quietly "positioning itself near the exits", gobbling up real estate, gold, and other tangible assets, paying off debts, etc. Luckily, I managed to score the land for Tar's Last Resort just before things went totally bonkers... but it's gonna be a bitch to put it all together before shit starts.

    People in the cities with any scratch at all are starting to realize it's time to GTFO; smart ones are looking for something a ways from dense urban areas with enough dirt around it to grow a decent amount of food on. Currently looking at dumping some cash into prefab greenhouses and raised beds for my spot, investing in agriculture equipment that might not be too easy to get later.

    Hope you get a big payout on your investment, BC. If you need help looking for a spot to relocate, I can help with land search and topo maps. If you go mobile, may you get to see all the beautiful places before they go to Hell when this shit shakes out. About the only good thing I anticipate from this is that a lot of the old underground infrastructure we need to replace in the cities will become easily accessible after the unhinged morons burn down everything above it.

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  7. Well, because of job we sold our place in Tempe AZ for 170k. 3 years later it's 375K. Tears flowed. Could be an out of state landlord though even with mgt company in AZ. This time, I am determined to sell the place in Cincinnati, OH near the top of the bubble and rent a place somewhere until cooler heads prevail. Given the political sit, and no need to tell you I'm sure, Florida is looking mighty attractive to spurned Trump voters. Over 75 mm of em looking to live out their days in a pretty red state. Let alone the idiots living in the deep blue with lots of money who just buy places sight unseen and no questions asked.

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  8. There a flip side to the RE boom... my property tax assessment just showed up, and guess what? It up over 100K from one year ago. The states and counties have been hurting on the tax collection, on account of shooting themselves in the foot by locking down the economy, and now they intend to catch up.
    Get ready, the taxman cometh... not to mention slo joe's weaponized IRS.
    It may look like gold, but its really chains.

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  9. I got one of those cards from an Opendoor type company in the mail a few weeks ago. Pretty much an offer I should not refuse considering none of the screw job percentage paid to the realtor. I only refused because there are no rentals around that are not in total Afrikaner land and I don't want to pull my daughter out of her school with only two years ago. I am hopefully not screwing myself...but I am not optimistic for the future and really should take that offer. Anyhoo....I think I am gonna just keep buying gold and silver in small amounts each month.

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    Replies
    1. Always RV living and a lot easier to bail if shit goes sideways...

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    2. Mobile living is always entertaining.
      We can go to watch the rioters one day, then go sit alongside a volcano the next.

      A flood?
      A tornado?
      Civil war(s)?
      Crack downs by the government agents?
      So many opportunities for smiles!
      .
      .
      2003, we converted a 1997 Ford CF8000 commercial truck to our concept of an ExpeditionVehicle.
      With nearly two decades full-time live-aboard, we think a stand-still house feels like a cage.

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  10. yup. my place has increased 200% in 4 years since i bought.. seriously, who wouldn't want to live on an island in the Great Lakes?

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  11. It's not just in The US. The UK has "13 buyers for every house listing and buyers tailing estate agents cars to be first to bid". Prices in most of Europe and Australia sky-rocketing. When this bubble bursts it will ... smart (globally).

    Throw in SCROTUS gropey-dopey and his Carter (or is it Weimar) inspired inflation. Then there's solar cycle 25 and a possible minimum with food-production further affected. Add in ADE from all the not-a-vaccines kicking in and ...

    The next few years are ... purely going to suck!

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